This document outlines the pre-analysis plan to study the effects of the Urban Productive Sa- fety Net Program (UPSNP) in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, one year after it started. The evaluation takes advantage of the randomization of the program at the woreda level during its first year of implementation. Of the 90 eligible woredas in Addis, 35 were randomly assigned to start implementation right away (in year 1) while the remaining 55 were assigned to start imple- mentation approximately 12 months later (in year 2). We look at household and individual effects of the program on direct recipients of both of the two main intervention arms of the program, as well as the effect of the program on non-beneficiary households living in urban neighbourhoods where the program is rolled out.
Persistent violence and instability in the Eastern Congo region over the past three decades have left millions of communities plunged into acute vulnerability, with limited access to basic infrastructures. The international community has been actively involved in efforts to re- establish peace and security in Eastern DRC, in part by supporting economic recovery in the region. The World Bank’s support to these efforts include the International Development Association (IDA)-funded Productive Opportunities for Stabilization and Recovery in the DRC (STEP, in its French acronym), being implemented by the Social Fund of the DRC (FSRDC) in North Kivu (NK), South Kivu (SK), and the Ex-Oriental Province (OP). The livelihood and employment generation component includes a labor-intensive public works (LIPW) program, which embeds an impact evaluation (IE) study undertaken by DIME.
In recent years, Tunisia’s economic growth slowed as the result of the financial, food, and fuel crises. This had a profound effect on the real economy, particularly through a drop in trade. Depressed external demand (particularly from the European Union, which is the destination of 76 percent of Tunisia’s exports) resulted in a drop of over 25 percent of Tunisia’s export value in the first seven months of 2009. This led to a reduction in industrial production, which resulted in the loss of 38,000 manufacturing jobs in 2009. All the while, prices of staple foods, such as rice and vegetable oil, doubled between January and May 2008 and continued to rise in 2009 and 2010. Higher food prices exacerbated economic woes and in January 2014 culminated in political unrest and the toppling of Zine Ben Ali, the country’s long-time ruler.
Egypt’s labor market has been sluggish since the 2011 revolution and the economiic downturn that ensued in the revolution aftermath.
Egypt’s labor market has been sluggish since the 2011 revolution and the economic downturn that ensured in the revolution aftermath.
Instability in the Eastern Congo region over the past three decades has frequently resulted in outright violent conflict with catastrophic results leaving millions of people dead, and millions of others plunged into acute vulnerability. The international community has been actively involved in efforts to end conflict and to support economic recovery in Eastern DRC, as part of broader efforts to re-establish peace and security in the region. The World Bank supports these efforts in part through the International Development Association (IDA)-funded Productive Opportunities for Stabilization and Recovery in the DRC (STEP, in its French acronym), being implemented by the Social Fund of the DRC (FSRDC) in North Kivu, South Kivu, and Oriental Province. The livelihood and employment generation component includes a labor-intensive public works (LIPW) program, which embeds an impact evaluation (IE) study undertaken by DIME.
The Union of Comoros is an insular State of 3 islands (Grande Comore or Ngazidja in local language, Anjouan or Ndzwani, and Mohéli or Mwali) with a population of 760 000. Poverty and inequality are high, with 48 percent of the population living with incomes below US$1.25 per day, and one-third of all children under 5 years of age suffered from chronic malnutrition.
Despite high needs, Comoros has a weak formal social protection system. Political instability, poverty and skilled migration have indeed impaired government's ability to invest in infrastructure and deliver quality basic services. The World Bank’s recent assessment of social protection policies and systems found that social protection programs cover only a small part of the population despite the high rates of poverty and vulnerability in the country. Effective social protection policies and programs are of crucial importance for the country’s development.
Iraq needs a strategy to make rapid progress in tackling its profound jobs challenges. Iraq is facing a jobs crisis of unprecedented proportions. It could foment a resurgence in violence unless the Government of Iraq makes credible and swift progress in job creation and reconstruction. To shape a longer-term vision, Iraq can look beyond its recent history of conflict, and to its past as a diversified economy & home of an educated workforce.However, in the short-term, neither private/ public sector hiring can create jobs at the desired scale without significant new policy action. The first-best solution for large-scale private sector job creation hinges on structural reforms that must begin now, but are achievable only in the medium to longer term. This paper provides a primer on options to deliver large-scale job creation in the short-term, based on investments in construction, agriculture and agribusiness, small & medium enterprises, and vocational skills. Its aim is to outline workable steps for progress in a jobs crisis in a post-conflict situation. Because these steps focus on rapid impact at scale, rather than structural reform, they are less-than-ideal or second-best. A similar logic applies to financing options. Financing needs for jobs are large, and while business climate reforms are under way,first-best private investment in jobs will remain limited.Yet, the recent oil price hike offers the Government of Iraq a uniquely timely opportunity to make an investment in jobs.
Over the recent past, Burkina Faso has registered solid economic growth and poverty levels have been lowered, suggesting that growth has been pro-poor. Yet, poverty remains widespread despite high levels of labor market participation and employment. In practice, life for many in the country remains a struggle, even when compared to equally challenging conditions elsewhere in the region. The overview report on the "Jobs Diagnostic: Burkina Faso" provides a multi-sectoral analysis of the country's jobs challenges by looking at macro-economic conditions and trends, hindrances to labor demand, issues affecting jobs outcomes in agriculture and determinants of jobs outcomes in general. The report draws on recent household and enterprise surveys and provides regional comparisons that place the challenges in Burkina Faso in a wider context. It closes with preliminary policy recommendations for a future jobs strategy.
This paper reviews and critically evaluates existing evidence on female entrepreneurial activity. First, we identify how female-run businesses are different, by examining both economic and non-economic outcomes which are frequently overlooked. Second, we offer a comprehensive discussion of drivers to explain why these differences. We group these drivers in four categories: (i) preferences, (ii) endowments, (iv) external constraints, and (iv) internal constraints. Third, we review evidence on the types of policies that have been effective or have potential to address the different drivers. Finally, we offer a discussion of the gaps in the literature and identify areas for future research.
Paraguay has achieved positive employment outcomes over the last decade, reflecting more jobs and improved average job quality, which together contributed to significant poverty reduction. Firms played a major role in creating these jobs, especially formal jobs. It is important to understand how firm performance has translated into employment, the nature of the resulting jobs, and the factors affecting these outcomes. Using firm-level datasets, this analysis explores the characteristics of firms that are growing or stagnating; the sectors into which new firms are entering or incumbent firms are expanding their operations; and the factors that may be helping or hindering firms to enter, expand, or increase their productivity. High rates of informality and evasion create a challenging private sector environment for firms, but even among formal firms, the prevailing structure is characterized by micro-firms that lack scale economies, are concentrated in non-tradables, have generally low productivity levels, and rely on unskilled employment. The analysis also finds a pervasive duality between micro-sized low-productivity firms on one end, and a small number of highly productive firms in concentrated markets on the other end. These results imply some important challenges for the continued development of a healthy, dynamic and inclusive private sector.
The paper is structured in six further sections following this introduction. Section two develops a conceptual framework, and reviews the literature on the relationship between trade integration and labor market outcomes. Section three outlines the empirical framework and data used in the analysis. Section four presents results on the relationship between overall trade integration (through exports) and labor market outcomes. Section five then focuses specifically on GVC trade, and assesses the relationship between labor market outcomes and GVC integration as a buyer and as a seller. Section six tests if select policy indicators mediate these relationships between trade integration and labor market outcomes. Finally, section seven concludes, with a summary of results and areas for future research.
In Kenya, skills constraints are reported to have a detrimental impact on job creation and labor market outcomes. Employers have reported concerns with the level and relevance of a broad set of socio-emotional skills and cognitive skills amongst job applicants and recently hired workers. These skill gaps affect firms' competitiveness (ability to grow and create more jobs), as well as productivity (better wages). Evidence of job dissatisfaction on both the demand and supply side suggests that workers are not being matched with the right jobs. Three policy implication are derived from these results. First, worker mobility and resilience to new challenges requires the continuous upgrading of skills through on-the-job and other training opportunities. Second, with the projected population growth rate (for young people) there is an urgent need to foster high productivity jobs, as well as jobs that are inclusive (to vulnerable populations). Third, in order to address the skills mismatch, comprehensive labor market information is needed to guide students and jobseekers by providing unemployment data, job vacancies and the level of wages by occupation type.
Following a couple of decades of offshoring, the fear today is of reshoring. Using administrative data
on Mexican exports by municipality, sector and destination from 2004 to 2014, this paper investigates how local labor markets in Mexico that are more exposed to automation in the U.S. through trade fared in exports and employment outcomes. The results show that an increase of one robot per thousand workers in the U.S. — about twice the increase observed between 2004-2014 — lowers growth in exports per worker from Mexico to the U.S. by 6.7 percent. Higher exposure to U.S. automation did not affect wage employment, nor manufacturing wage employment overall.
This paper reviews and critically evaluates existing evidence on female entrepreneurial activity. First, we identify how female-run businesses are different, by examining both economic and non-economic outcomes which are frequently overlooked. Second, we offer a comprehensive discussion of drivers to explain why these differences. We group these drivers in four categories: (i)preferences, (ii) endowments, (iv) external constraints, and(iv) internal constraints. Third, we review evidence on the types of policies that have been effective or have potential to address the different drivers. Finally, we offer a discussion of the gaps in the literature and identify areas for future research.
Labor Market Observatories (LMOs) are institutions that help guide job seekers and students, intermediaries, policymakers, training institutions, as well as investors and employers with labor market trends and guidance to build better careers.
Today, more than half of Haiti's population calls cities and towns their home, in a major shift from the 1950s when around 90 percent of Haitians lived in the countryside. Urbanization is usually paired with economic growth, increased productivity, and higher living standards, but in Haiti it has taken a different course. Potential benefits have been overshadowed by immense challenges, all of which require immediate action. To better understand the factors that constrain the sustainable and inclusive development of Haitian cities, this Urbanization Review organizes the challenges along three dimensions of urban development namely planning, connecting, and financing. Planning reviews the challenges in supporting resilient growth to create economically vibrant, environmentally sustainable, and livable cities. Connecting focuses on the obstacles of physically linking people to jobs and businesses to markets, while financing focuses on identifying the key capital, governance, and institutional constraints that are hurdles to successful planning and connecting.
One-fifth of the world's population lives in countries affected by fragility, violence and conflict, impeding long-term economic growth. However, little is known about how firms respond to local changes in security, partly because of the difficulty of measuring firm activity in these settings. This paper presents a novel methodology for observing private sector activity using mobile phone metadata. Using Afghanistan as the empirical setting, the analysis combines mobile phone data from over 2,300 firms with data from several other sources to develop and validate measures of firm location, size, and economic activity.
With a fast-growing population of 16 million and a per capita income of US$ 1721 (Report No: PAD1880), Zambia has made large socio-economic strides over the last two decades. The agricultural sector has been a crucial part of this rapid growth, providing employment to over half the labor force (World Bank, 2012). Despite its outsized role in employment, the agriculture sector’s value addition to GDP is just 5.25% (WDI, 2015).
This paper identifies the factors that affect the location of firms in Tanzania. Using a binomial econometric strategy to address data gaps in firm location at the ward level, the paper groups factors into firm characteristics, market features, and two types of agglomeration economies that capture economies of scale external to the firm. The benefits of agglomeration may stem from specialization within and among firms (referred to in the literature as localization economies) or from diversification across firms (referred to as urbanization economies). The distinction between these two lies at the heart of the discussion on firm location. Regression results indicate that, of the various factors tested, the most important determinant driving firm location is the jobs diversification spect of urban economies. Other contributing factors are localization economies (jobs specialization), competitive markets, and market access. Based on these findings, policymakers seeking to foster agglomeration could orient policies toward promoting firm entry within cities, complementary investments in urban infrastructure and the urban pool of labor, regulations that support competition, and improvements in market access for large cities. But localization economies are also significant in Tanzania, and could be encouraged through investment in smaller population centers and increasing competition and market access beyond the primary urban centers of Dar-es-Salaam and Arusha.
Technology is touted as both savior and saboteur of young people’s futures. It is capable of opening opportunities once undreamed of by helping young people to transcend the physical, social, and economic barriers that stand between them and a decent job. At the same time, advances in automation and artificial intelligence could combine to see two thirds of workers worldwide replaced by machines.
Paraguay has achieved positive employment outcomes over the last decade, reflecting more jobs and improved average job quality, which together contributed to significant poverty reduction. Firms played a major role in creating these jobs, especially formal jobs. It is important to understand how firm performance has translated into employment, the nature of the resulting jobs, and the factors affecting these outcomes. Using firm-level data sets, this analysis explores the characteristics of firms that are growing or stagnating; the sectors into which new firms are entering or incumbent firms are expanding their operations; and the factors that may be helping or hindering firms to enter, expand, or increase their productivity. High rates of informality and evasion create a challenging private sector environment for firms, but even among formal firms, the prevailing structure is characterized by micro-firms that lack scale economies, are concentrated in non-tradables, have generally low productivity levels, and rely on unskilled employment. The analysis also finds a pervasive duality between micro-sized low-productivity firms on one end, and a small number of highly productive firms in concentrated markets on the other end. These results imply some important challenges for the continued development of a healthy, dynamic and inclusive private sector
Value chain (VC) studies allow us to provide an in-depth understanding of the interrelationships among firms that operate in a supply network and of the factors that determine the structure, dynamism, and competitiveness of these chains. Although most approaches to value chain analysis provide a limited focus on the nature and structure of jobs in these chains, the Jobs in Value Chains survey toolkit discussed in this guide will help illuminate the number of jobs, where they are located in the VC, and the extent and nature of relationships among actors in a VC.
This report focuses on the challenge of Mozambique’s jobs transition: how to accelerate the shift into higher value-added activities and better livelihoods. As Mozambique enters the next phase of the demographic transition, the working-age population (WAP) is growing rapidly.
The recent oil and gas discoveries in Ghana present a unique opportunity to boost economic growth and increase prosperity. These discoveries created high expectations for a significant positive impact on the Ghanaian economy and people through job creation, particularly through small and medium enterprises (SMEs). However, among resource-rich countries there are examples of both successes and failures in the utilization of resource-generated wealth. The impact on the Ghanaian economy and society will depend on the policies implemented moving forward, including those associated with the use of the government oil revenues. This study discusses impacts observed to date, potential implications, and likely growth scenarios from 2015 to 2030 linked to several policy choices.
Between 2007 and 2017, 99 countries initiated reforms in labor regulations that affected World Bank Doing Business labor indicators. The most common topics for reforms are (i) procedural requirements in case of contract termination, and changes in notification arrangements; (ii) fixed-term contracts; (iii) severance payments; (iv) annual leave arrangements, and (v) working time arrangements.
The paper is structured in six further sections following this introduction. Section two develops a conceptual framework, and reviews the literature on the relationship between trade integration and labor market outcomes. Section three outlines the empirical framework and data used in the analysis. Section four presents results on the relationship between overall trade integration (through exports) and labor market outcomes. Section five then focuses specifically on GVC trade, and assesses the relationship between labor market outcomes and GVC integration as a buyer and as a seller. Section six tests if select policy indicators mediate these relationships between trade integration and labor market outcomes. Finally,section seven concludes, with a summary of results and areas for future research.
This report was authored by the members of the Jobs Umbrella Multidonor Trust Fund (MDTF) Team, David Robalino, Fareeba Mahmood, Siv Tokle, Alvaro Gonzalez, Sonia Madhvani, Vismay Parikh, and Emily (Beibei) Yan.
The World Bank in collaboration with the Tanzania Social Action Fund (TASAF) conducted an assessment on the constraints and opportunities faced by non-farm household enterprise owners when starting and growing a business. The report highlights the findings from two applied methodologies namely a qualitative toolkit and a quantitative analysis.
Economic growth depends on skills being put to productive use. In recent years, research on labor outcomes and education shows that there is a substantial mismatch between the supply and demand for skills around the world (Cappelli, 2014: McIntosh and Vignoles, 2001). This mismatch affects more than just wages or individual job satisfaction.
This paper finds that skills constraints – related to a broad set of skills - have an effect on job creation and labor market outcomes in Kenya. Most seriously, skills shortages negatively impact recruitment and have been identified across a broad set of socioemotional skills and cognitive skills that are necessary for any occupation.
This study sets out the pathways through which improvements in the availability, affordability and reliability of electricity supply impact on businesses and households. Specifically, it evaluates whether IFC investments into power generation and distribution have helped sustain jobs and incomes in Turkey. IFC is supporting private sector investment in the power sector in Turkey. The organization has exposure both in power generation and distribution. Since 2008, it has provided USD 1,816 million in (A, B and C) loan capital and invested USD 170 million equity capital. A total of USD 1,666 million loan capital went to four generation companies (Enerjisa Enerji, ACWA, Akenerji, and Rotor Elektrik) while the entire equity investment was made into a sixth generation company (Gama Enerji). The distribution company SEDAS received USD 150 million loan capital (and an additional USD 90 million sourced from international banks). IFC has financed plants with a total installed capacity of 6,109 MW of which 3,053 MW are currently operational and the remainder is under construction.
Training is one of the main ways that the Nepal government intervenes in the labor market. This descriptive study documents patterns, trends, correlates, and the labor market effects of formal off-the-job training of youth, based on national household survey data. Training rates in Nepal tend to be higher than in other South Asian countries. Within the country, rates are higher for traditionally advantaged groups. While both short- and long-term training programs are available, most programs are short-term. Training is associated with a higher likelihood of employment, wagework, and nonfarm work for women but not for men. Training does not appear to be associated with wage earnings for either gender. Interest in training runs high, especially among traditionally disadvantaged groups, and among those who are currently employed or have previously obtained training. Little rigorous evidence is available for Nepal to inform the extent and nature of public intervention in the training market. The study concludes by offering suggestions for future, policy relevant research.
This Note systematizes the economic evaluation of Jobs Investment Projects. It explains the limitations of past approaches that have regarded jobs only as a by-product of growth. It focuses on market failures that create a gap between the social and private return on investments and reduce the number of good jobs below the socially optimal level. Two of these market failures are: labor externalities arising from the divergence between the market price and opportunity cost of labor; and social jobs externalities linked to improved jobs outcomes for groups such as youth, women, and the extreme poor. These externalities can amplify other market failures such as learning spillovers and coordination failures. The analysis is integrated within a Cost-Benefit framework, to facilitate decision making around jobs investment programs. The Note discusses applications to different sorts of projects: those that focus on improving the labor supply and labor market matches; those that focus on strengthening firms' demand for labor; and integrated projects, that include both types of interventions.
Should public investment be targeted to big cities or to small towns, if the objective is to minimize national poverty? To answer this policy question, this paper extends the basic Todaro-type model of rural-urban migration to the case of migration from rural areas to two potential destinations, secondary town and big city. The analysis first derives the labor income, migration cost and poverty line conditions under which a poverty gradient from rural to town to city will exist as an equilibrium phenomenon. Then sufficient statistics are developed for the policy decisions based on these parameters. The empirical remit of the model is illustrated with long-running panel data from Kagera, Tanzania. Further, the paper shows that the structure of the sufficient statistics is maintained in the case where the model is generalized to introduce heterogeneous workers and jobs.
An additional 600 million new jobs will be needed by 2020 due to global population growth. The private sector, which currently provides nine out of then jobs in developing countries will be critical to meeting the challenge. IFC, a member of the World Bank Group, promotes private-sector led growth to help people escape poverty and boost shared prosperity. As part of this, IFC provides both investment and advisory services to financial institutions (FIs) in India, to expand access to finance for local micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), support the growth of their businesses, create new jobs, and, with this, contribute to the country’s economic growth.
One of the world’s most youthful countries, Zambia’s economy has been booming since the early 2000s on the back of record high copper prices and private sector investment response to the better business environment. But poverty rose from 2010 to 2015 and remains very high in rural areas. Economic transformation is underway with workers moving to off-farm jobs, but these are heavily skewed in the capital Lusaka and in the Copperbelt, are mostly informal, and aside from jobs on the commercial farms, good waged are inaccessible to large groups of rural Zambians, especially women and youth. As labor has started moving out of agriculture into industry and especially into services, productivity and hours worked have fallen on average, especially for young people and those with low levels of education. Better educated people in the upper income quintiles are gaining most from rapid growth in Zambia, with the public sector hiring a substantial share of better educated Zambians and paying them more for a given level of education. The majority of Zambia’s rising number of poor people are stuck in low productivity agriculture. This report identifies the main jobs challenges facing Zambia and recommends policies and programs that could reduce poverty and make growth more inclusive by generating more and better jobs for Zambia.
Kazakhstan is a unique country in a unique part of the world. Its uniqueness is important, as it shapes the opportunities and economic realities faced by the country, as well as the political responses to those challenges. Since independence in 1992, Kazakhstan has made rapid progress in transitioning to an upper-middle income country. This sustained growth has enabled Kazakhstan to achieve rapid reductions in poverty. This note draws on a large body of recent and ongoing analyses carried out by the World Bank, the Government of Kazakhstan, and other partners. The strategy, in turn, aims to enhance the impact of the government’s policies, programs, and projects on the availability, diversity, quality, and sustainability of jobs. The remainder of the note is structured as follows: Section 2 provides a detailed review of the state of jobs in Kazakhstan, reviewing recent progress and analyzing the nature of the challenges around self-employment; Section 3 introduces a framework for thinking about a jobs strategy in Kazakhstan, and provides an initial overview of the current situation and government response along each of its dimensions, as well as some potential policies for consideration; and Section 4 concludes.
This note presents a detailed analysis of jobs in Kazakhstan at the macro and individual levels, including regional and socio-economic disparities. At the macro level, it includes a diagnostic of the links between economic growth, jobs, and productivity across different economic sectors. At the individual level, the analysis focuses on labor market outcomes of women and men, young and adult workers, residents of urban and rural areas, and people in the bottom 40 percent of the consumption distribution. It also presents a detailed analysis of determinants of employment and wages. The rest of the note is organized as follows: section two discusses the relationship between economic growth, jobs, and productivity across different economic sectors. Section three discusses demographic trends and overall labor market outcomes. Section four focuses on assessing spatial and sectoral differences in access to jobs, including for those in the bottom 40 percent. Section five concludes with a discussion of challenges and broad policy implications.
A crucial ingredient for alleviating poverty and promoting shared prosperity is equality of opportunity in labor markets; being able to participate and engage in productive employment. Early work experiences are crucial in shaping future employment status and earnings. However, youth are affected by inadequate skills and lack professional and work search experience. This can deter firms from hiring them and/or offering better wages. Equally important, although medium-sized firms are more numerous and produce as many jobs as larger firms, they face relatively higher recruitment costs that can constrain their capacity to grow. Enhancing cognitive, hard and soft skills can open up a wider spectrum of labor opportunities for youth, while a larger pool of adequately skilled workers can reduce search costs, generate productivity gains among firms, and increase the number of jobs created. The expected result is higher intergenerational mobility as more youth have access to jobs and higher wages.
Tanzania has just entered a phase of growing dependency rates that will put pressure on job creation so that the larger number of dependents do not fall into poverty. However, the new millions of jobs that will be needed in the next decade is only part of the challenge. It is important to create better jobs. An economy that produces plenty of good jobs is the most direct way to continue the trajectory toward lower poverty rates.
Using online job portal data and probabilistic regression estimations, the paper investigates the explicit gender bias and salary gap in the Indian job market, reflected in more than 800,000 job recruitment advertisements. Exploring formal and informal sector occupations, the study finds high existence of employers' gender bias in hiring. Explicit gender preferences are highly job specific, and it is common to mention the preferred gender in job ads, which, in general, favor men over women. Although ads for professional occupations exhibit less explicit gender bias, they are not gender neutral.
This paper examines the impact of noncognitive (socio-emotional) skills on job market outcomes, using a randomized control trial implemented in an online job portal in India. Job seekers who registered in the portal were asked to take a Big-Five type personality test and, for a random subsample of the test takers, the results were displayed to potential employers. The outcomes are measured by whether a potential employer shortlisted a job seeker by opening (unlocking) his/her application and background information. The results show that the treatment group for whom test results were shown generally enjoyed a higher probability of unlock.
This document describes the design of the impact evaluation of the Farmer to Market Alliance (FtMA) and WINnERS intervention, and the findings of the baseline survey that was carried out as part of this evaluation. The aim of the impact evaluation is to measure and understand the impact of the FtMA and WINnERS intervention on maize producing farmers in Tanzania. The baseline data was collected to describe the household and farming characteristics of the households that are being targeted in the intervention. As such, the baseline document is purely descriptive, and serves to document the situation of maize farmers in Tanzania before the FtMA and WINnERS intervention is rolled out.
The case study illustrates that better working conditions can be a business case, even in highly competitive sectors with low margins, such as the garment sector in Bangladesh. DBL, a vertically integrated knit garment manufacturer in Bangladesh, faces stiff regional competition from companies that are able to use their workforce more effectively. To bridge the worker productivity gap, DBL adopted good and safe working conditions by investing in building, fire, and electrical safety and providing employees with loyalty incentives. The interventions led to lowered absenteeism, higher employee satisfaction and decreased staff turnover, which resulted in higher employee productivity and long term cost savings for DBL. In combination with training programs and resource efficiency measures, these effects have led to less downtime, increased wages and the strengthening of DBL’s competitive advantage in the market. The results have allowed DBL to pay higher wages than the industry average and enabled DBL to further invest in better working conditions. The experience of the DBL group highlights that sometimes small changes can lead to substantial business impacts.The case study is a result of DEG’s evaluation work regarding the development effectiveness of the transactions it co-finances.
Let’s Work, in close collaboration with the World Business Council on Sustainable Development (WBCSD), compiled a series of case studies that demonstrate how companies – who work with the public sector and educational institutions – can play a vital role in increasing the skills and employability of thousands of job market entrants and seekers. When investing in emerging markets, private sector companies are faced with two main challenges: (1) to find employees with the right set of skills and (2) a lack of required quality and quantity of goods and services provided by suppliers. Firms can benefit from a well-trained workforce in more ways than through increased production.The purpose of this exercise was to understand why and how the private sector addresses the constraint it faces of accessing good quality skilled workforce – both as their own employees and also skills in their value chains. The initiatives were categorized into three areas: workforce development, value chain development and community development.
Since the Syrian war begun in 2011, Turkey has received over 2.8 million refugees, becoming the largest host country in the world. We build and es- timate/calibrate a model using detailed micro data from Turkey to quantify the labor market effects of this sudden and massive migration wave. Low and high skill workers self-select into different regions based on idiosyncratic preferences and mobility costs, while firms within each region can exploit two margins of informality: to register or not their business, the extensive margin; and whether to hire their workers formally or not, the intensive margin.
For a long time, the urbanization and development discourse has coincided with a focus on economic growth and big cities. Yet, much of the world's new urbanization is taking place in smaller urban entities towns), and the composition of urbanization may well bear on the speed of poverty reduction. This paper reviews the latter question within the context of Tanzania.
The objective of this assignment is to conduct a quantitative and qualitative Jobs in Value Chain Survey in a rigorous manner in Iringa and Njombe regions in Tanzania, in order to extract findings that inform how to improve the competitiveness of local firms and efficiency of the tomato value chain, in a way that stimulates job creation and enhances linkages of smaller firms into the value chain.
This guide aims to provide general guidance to project managers and project teams on the design and implementation of integrated, cross-sectoral youth employment programs.The aim of the integrated programs described in this guide is to bring together supply- and demand side interventions to simultaneously address three interrelated objectives:Promote job creation for the target population; Improve the quality of jobs young people already have, many of which are in the informal sector; and Help prepare young job seekers for jobs or to move from low- to higher-quality jobs.This guide has been developed by a team drawn from multiple World Bank Global Practices and is based on evidence, experience, and lessons learned from a variety of sources.This guide attempts to present a broad framework to help project teams explicitly link supply- and demand-side considerations in the context of an integrated youth operation: Section one briefly introduces the conceptual framework guiding project design, the type of diagnostic work needed, and the diagnostic models and tools that can be used. Some of these tools are generic, but can be adapted to look more deeply at youth employment issues; Section two discusses how teams could improve the design of supply-side interventions. Reviews of successful youth employment programs suggest they have certain characteristics in common: they offer a diversified package of interventions that address the constraints of a heterogeneous group of beneficiaries; include good identification, profiling, and follow-up systems; and rely on appropriate contracting and payment systems for providers and strong engagement with the private sector; Section three presents practical suggestions to improve the design of a youth employment program on the demand side. The evidence on what works in fostering more and better job creation at the firm level is not as robust as for the supply side. Nonetheless, there are interventions that can be adapted to stimulate job creation and/or labor productivity growth at the firm level with a focus on youth.; Section four describes how teams might develop a fully integrated program/project. In most cases, project managers might need to begin with designing either a supply- or demand-side intervention and then try to integrate or connect it with one or more interventions aimed from the other side. In other cases, the project team may be able to design a fully integrated program from the start. Such integrated approaches are new and require systematic testing, experimentation, and piloting to fine-tune design elements. The guide is supplemented by ten annexes which summarize useful tools and techniques that can be adapted to the youth employment context.
This Note is a stocktake summarizing evidence on “what works” in youth employment programs on both the supply and demand side. Employment outcomes refer both to direct and indirect job creation, including through firm start-up, as well as improvements in the quality of jobs as manifested in higher earnings as self-employment or increases in household income. This paper is based on an extensive desk literature review and analyzes the major meta-analysis and literature reviews on both the labor demand side and labor supply side. The supply side has a large body of evidence and evaluations of the whole Active Labor Market Policies (ALMPs) package as a whole. Kluve et al. (2016) and McKenzie, D. (2017) have a rigorous methodology and provide wide analysis and recommendations of the major studies on the supply side and provide the basis for that section. We supplement this information with key studies which had Randomized Control Trials (RCTs) or rigorous
This report presents a novel analysis of the expected impacts that alternative industry-sector focused investment strategies would have in Ethiopia. We focus not only on economic growth and employment but also on impacts on poverty and inequality. The analysis is based on the results of an innovative structural simulation modeling approach (Economy-wide Private Impact Quantification model - EPIQ), which links investments in one or more industry-sectors to the World Bank Group (WBG) twin goals of ending extreme poverty and improving shared prosperity.
Why do some countries create more jobs than others? To consider this question, in this paper we focus on one of the most basic relationships, between growth and employment. In practice, the private sector responds very differently to growth (and decline) across countries. Understanding the patterns and drivers of private sector decisions to expand and shed jobs may be important to guide policy approaches for job creation. This paper analyzes the output-employment relationship in the context of business cycles at three levels: the macro-economy; industry (in manufacturing); and firms.
In the last few decades with the rise of the “Digital Age,” the amount of online job portals and professional networking platforms has increased significantly. These platforms can help strengthen the match between employers and job seekers, and often lower recruitment and job search costs. The datasets of these platforms can also provide us with a variety of labor market insights ranging from in-demand jobs and in- supply skills in a certain economy to industries that might experience skills gap-related challenges.
Jobs need to be at the heart of economic development policies in Zambia. Recognizing the role of jobs in making Zambia a more equal middle-income country, the Government of Zambia has prioritized job creation in its Vision 2030 and National Strategy on Job Creation and Industrialization by setting a goal to create one million jobs in key sectors over the next five years. This report has three main objectives. First, it outlines the main challenges to Zambia's jobs agenda at the macro, household, and firm levels. Second, it takes a closer look at jobs at a sectoral level, with a focus on agribusiness value chains that illustrates the potential for job creation in high-potential sectors. Lastly, it presents a set of policies that may be prioritized by policymakers as part of implementing a jobs strategy through creating more formal sector jobs, improving the quality of informal sector jobs, and connecting vulnerable population groups to jobs.
The high incidence of informality in developing countries implies that many workers are not covered against important risks, such as unemployment, illness and old-age poverty. Given that expanding the Bismarckian system to include informal workers presents many challenges, several countries implemented non-contributory social insurance programs to expand coverage. However, these contributed to labor market segmentation and are unlikely to be financially sustainable. This note reviews the economic literature dealing with the expansion of social insurance programs and summarizes the main policy insights. It draws on international evidence on social insurance system design and innovations, and the resulting impact on coverage. It also provides general design principles that can apply to unemployment benefits, health insurance, and pensions.
The high incidence of informality in developing countries acts as a drag on economic development due to the associated efficiency and equity costs and implied weak governance. Policy makers therefore want to reduce informality. This note presents guidance on policy levers to make formality more attractive and informality less attractive from the perspective of small, medium and large firms, and from the perspective of micro-entrepreneurs. It elaborates the challenges for shifting incentives in favor of being formal and employing workers on formal contracts rather than operating under the regulatory radar, and presents a range of policy options.
This working paper explores the multiple dimensions of women’s access to good quality jobs. It is the first in a series of notes on gender and jobs, and will be followed by notes that delve deeper into more specific aspects of the issue. It includes a brief discussion of the gender gaps in women’s access to good quality jobs and the factors contributing to such gaps; and suggests actions that governments can take to close them.
This paper develops a general framework to inform the design of a new generation of jobs lending operations. The paper discusses the rationale for developing jobs focused lending operations with specific targets in terms of job creation, job quality, and labor markets outcomes for vulnerable population groups. It reviews the current portfolio of jobs-flagged lending operations, discusses the limitations of existing interventions, and outlines options to optimize countries lending portfolios and develop new, integrated, jobs lending operations on the basis of jobs diagnostics and jobs strategies. The paper provides examples of innovative projects that are currently under preparation or implementation, including jobs investment projects that link supply-side and demand side interventions; jobs Program for Results (PforRs), and jobs Development Policy Lending. The final section describes the types of monitoring and evaluation systems that these new projects would require to track jobs outcomes.
Participation in a Global Value Chain (GVC) can create more jobs through a structural transformation, and potential jobs spill overs from strengthened backward and forwardlinkages. GVCs can also have a positive impact on jobs for women. Evidence shows a disproportionateshare of jobs in labor-intensive chains benefiting women.Jobs in GVCs are better jobs because of higher wages and better working conditions, as domestic firms seek to comply with global standards to participate.
Young men and women today face increasing uncertainty in their hopes of undergoing a satisfactory entry to the labor market, and this uncertainty and disillusionment can, in turn, have damaging effects on individuals, communities, economies and society at large.
Fourteenth in a series of annual reports comparing business regulation in 190 economies, Doing Business 2017 measures aspects of regulation affecting 10 areas of everyday business activity: • Starting a business • Dealing with construction permits • Getting electricity • Registering property • Getting credit • Protecting minority investors • Paying taxes • Trading across borders • Enforcing contracts • Resolving insolvency.
Ukraine’s economic progress has been uneven since the start of the transition in 1991. Productivity is low partly because of the slow pace of market-oriented reforms and the misallocation of the labor force. Half of all workers work in low- productivity sectors, one worker out of five is informal, underemployment is widespread, and the rate of inactivity among older people is among the highest in Europe.
This study analyzes from a jobs perspective two high potential value chains (VCs) in Zambia’s agribusiness sector poultry and aquaculture. With more than 50 percent of workers and over 80 percent of poor Zambians recording themselves in agriculture in the 2010 population census, raising agricultural productivity is a determinant to reduce poverty. Yet small-scale farmers (SSFs) and modern commercial operations in large farms exist in parallel, as SSFs typically use backward production systems with scant capitalization. Zambia’s challenge is to overcome the persistent disconnect between low productivity smallholder agriculture and high productivity modern agribusiness firms. Developing market linkages will enable the agribusiness sector to meet the growing urban demand for food products, while connecting more people to jobs.
This report studies coding bootcamps. A new kind of rapid skills training program for the digital age. Coding bootcamps are typically short-term (three to six months), intensive and applied training courses provided by a third party that crowdsources the demand for low-skills tech talent. Coding bootcamps aim at low-entry level tech employability (for example, junior developer), providing a new tool for entry into the new world of digital jobs. This report studies the characteristics, methodologies, business models and impact of five coding bootcamps operating directly or through partners in developing countries.
This paper applies a newly-developed survey instrument to assess the structure and dynamics of jobs in the potato value chain of North Lebanon. The analysis finds that while on-farm activities represent the largest source of jobs in the value chain, most of these are low-skilled, low quality jobs taken by seasonal workers, offering limited opportunities for young Lebanese workers. The best opportunities to develop high quality jobs would come through investment in downstream processing, which would have a spillover effect also on expanding lower-skilled jobs across the chain. Taking advantage of this opportunity will require addressing significant constraints in the trade and investment climate in North Lebanon.
This report provides an assessment of constraints and opportunities for the creation of more and better quality jobs for Lebanese in the more fragile and conflict-affected regions. The geographical focus is North Lebanon, including Tripoli. This analysis, accompanied by further dialogue with the key public and private sector professionals, can serve to inform the design and development of a jobs-focused program of financial support for North Lebanon. This diagnostic and program development approach can also be replicated in other high-priority, lagging regions of the country. The diagnostic followed a three-pronged approach in order to assess the gaps that need to be overcome to respond effectively to job opportunities, foster productivity, and increase earnings: 1) an assessment of the investment climate in North Lebanon; 2) a value chain analysis (VCA) of selected sectors and the interventions required to unlock competitiveness and job creation; and 3) a review of the supply of labor and skills in the region, a stock-taking of training providers. Enterprise surveys were conducted of the key agents in two targeted value chains, as well as a household-level skills survey of the working age population in North Lebanon. Complementary semi-structured interviews and focus group meetings were also undertaken. Consultations with the Government and other stakeholders took place from May through August, 2016.
After a decade of crisis and stellar economic growth over the past five years, Côte d’Ivoire has now set its sight on becoming an emerging economy. Improving prospects for productive employment will be essential for socially sustainable growth and poverty reduction. The "Cote d'Ivoire Jobs Diagnostic: Employment, Productivity, and Inclusion for Poverty Reduction" report provides a comprehensive and multi-sectoral empirical analysis of employment challenges and opportunities to inform strategies and policy actions in Côte d’Ivoire. The report aims to expand policy discussions on employment from a focus on the number of jobs and unemployment to a broader attention on the quality, productivity and inclusiveness of jobs. It makes the case for a jobs strategy with a sharper poverty lens that would focus on raising labor productivity in agriculture and informal off-farm employment to foster structural transformation, while, in parallel, pursuing longer-term goals of expanding the thin formal sector.
Tajikistan’s economy is not creating sufficient jobs for its rapidly growing workforce, in particular its burgeoning youth population. As a result, its most valuable asset – human capital – is largely underutilized. Although remittance-driven growth since the early 2000s has led to a steep decline in the poverty rate, poverty remains high. Strong economic growth in the last decade has not resulted from structural transformation that can lead to sustained improvements in the standard of living. Jobs have been created, but these are mainly in low-productivity activities, often in the informal sector.
Sierra Leone is a relatively small economy with potential for jobs-rich growth. It is an extremely poor nation with substantial mineral, agricultural, and fishery resources. Nearly half of the working-age population engages in subsistence agriculture. Alluvial diamond mining remains the major source of hard currency earnings, accounting for nearly half of exports. However, the anticipated job-rich recovery is unlikely to be realized simply from the continued exploitation of the minerals underneath Sierra Leonean soil. This Jobs Diagnostic of Sierra Leone is a first, modest, but necessary, step to formulate that focused effort to create good jobs.
Kosovo's economy experienced strong growth over the past decade. Has growth translated into robust job creation? Do those in the bottom forty percent of the population have access to employment opportunities that can translate into sustainable shared prosperity? This report seeks to provide an integrated analysis of the demand-side and supply-side constraints to job creation and employment; and highlighting salient issues like informality and skill mismatches. Bringing together evidence from a number of data sources, including surveys of household budgets and labor force, as well as firm-level panel data and a specialized survey capturing the employers' assessments of demand and supply of skills in Kosovo, the report tries to provide evidence to argue that reforms aimed at adopting the right set of rules, and developing the right set of skills, to promote job creation, will be vital to reduce inactivity and youth disenfranchisement, and to productively employ the demographic dividend.
The economy of the Democratic Republic of Congo is not creating sufficient jobs for its young and rapidly growing workforce. Although the Congolese economy has experienced fast growth and poverty has declined, further reducing poverty will require more dynamic job creation and continued reductions in fertility rates. The current youth bulge and potential demographic dividend will open a unique window of opportunity but will demand faster job creation. The challenge is not limited to reducing unemployment, but includes tackling inactivity and rampant underemployment.
Bangladesh has made remarkable progress toward poverty reduction and shared prosperity. As recently as 2000, around one in three Bangladeshis was in extreme poverty based on the $1.90 a day poverty line; today, this has fallen to below 13 percent. As in most countries, the vast majority of poverty reduction in Bangladesh over the past decade has been the result of higher labor earnings, and positive labor market developments have been at the center of such progress. Many factors—such as large-scale expansion of employment in man- ufacturing driven by the ready-made garment sector, rapid urbanization, and international labor mobility and remittances—have contributed to positive developments in the labor market, changing the lives of many.
Jobs are central to economic development. Economies grow when more people work, when jobs become more productive, and when workers move to better jobs, e.g. from low productivity farm work into jobs in the modern manufacturing or services sectors, or from remote rural areas to urban centers with greater specialization and more job opportunities. Similarly, living standards improve and poverty declines when individuals move from inactivity or unemployment into jobs, or when workers’ labor income rises.
A key barrier to female labor force participation is the lack of access to childcare. Recognizing the impact that childcare provision has on women’s employment, countries such as Brazil, India, and Jordan have unveiled policies requiring companies to provide childcare options. Even when not driven by regulatory compliance, companies can support childcare and reap business benefits. Much has been written about the need for investment in childcare, yet there is a dearth of information on what companies can do to address their employees’ childcare needs and how companies might benefit as a result.
Women play a crucial role in the agribusiness sector, and agriculture remains the most important source of employment for women in low- and middle-income countries. Women account for a signi cant proportion of the agribusiness workforce throughout different segments of the agricultural value chain, providing inputs and functions that are critical to business performance. In this context, leading agribusiness rms recognize that women’s employment is increasingly a strategic issue.
Tourism in Tajikistan is increasingly regarded by the Tajikistan government as a sector that can contribute to the country’s overall development objectives in terms of its potential for inward investment and job creation. In support of the national government’s development agenda, the World Bank commissioned the present value chain analysis for tourism in Tajikistan. The purpose of this analysis is to provide information about the present and future jobs associated with the tourism value chain and to identify any constraints that must be addressed in order to take advantage of the associated economic opportunities.
he construction value chain is fundamental to any economy. It deserves a special attention from low-income countries with rich natural resources, like Tajikistan, because it not only creates demand, but it can also provide a comparative advantage for locally manufactured construction materials. In Tajikistan, the construction industry contributes 11.1 percent to the country’s GDP, which is 3 times higher than its contribution to the GDP of the EU. In 2011-2014 the construction industry demonstrated steady growth, stimulating demand for construction materials, driven by remittances and growing public investment. It reached the highest level in 2014 - $944 million, which is still 10 times lower compared to the world per capita average construction output. In 2015 construction output stumbled as it was affected by the reduction in the residential construction market due to the downturn in the Russian economy followed by the fall in remittances to Tajikistan.
SMEs form a dominant share of the private sector in developing countries, and account for more than 50 percent of jobs in their respective economies. Besides their positive employment effects, the growth and vibrancy of these firms is also important for broader economic growth, diversification of economic base and as a source of innovation that is exhibited by some of the start-ups. Women-owned SMEs are emerging as one of the fast growing segments within the SME sector. Youth play an important role in the creation of new firms and start up activities.
Launched in October 2014, Solutions for Youth Employment (S4YE) is a multi-stakeholder coalition among public sector, private sector, and civil society actors that aims to provide leadership and resources for catalytic action to increase the number of young people engaged in productive work.
This report provides novel evidence on the short-term impacts of a dual apprenticeship program on youths and firms in Côte d’Ivoire. The impact evaluation was embedded in the Youth Employment and Skills Development Project (PEJEDEC). The experiment randomized whether apprenticeship positions opened by firms were filled through the PEJEDEC apprenticeship program, and whether interested youths were assigned to dual apprenticeships. The program offered a stipend paid directly to the apprentice, and complemented practical on-the-job training with mentoring and theoretical training.
This study is the result of a partnership between CDC Group Plc, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and RBL Bank as a contribution to Let’s Work, a global partnership that unites organisations to provide effective solutions to tackle the global jobs crisis. The team would like to thank several individuals who have contributed to this report. Our gratitude goes to the RBL team: Rajiv Janjanam, Nishant Shah, Anshul Swami and Faiyaz Naikwadi. Without their efforts – their provision of data, time, and information, their follow-ups, coordination and multiple reviews – this study would not have been possible. The team is also grateful to the SME clients of the bank who took the time to share their stories.
Digital technology is transforming the organization and location of production, and thus the futureof work. It risks widening the gap between richer and developing countries, and between the better skilled and connected and the poorer population groups within countries, who stand to bear the brunt of the adjustment. But technology also creates opportunities (leapfrogging), to generate jobs, increase earnings and be more inclusive. To take maximum advantage and counter the threat of rising global inequality, developing countries need to: (1) address bottlenecks in technology access; (2) invest in skills and (3) create an enabling environment.
The World Bank Group considers infrastructure development to be critical to achieving economic growth, reducing poverty and addressing broader development objectives, such as access to basic services, improved country competitiveness and broad-based inclusion of the poor and marginalized. Within this context, support to infrastructure development is a key strategic priority to the International Finance Corporation (IFC). Specifically for the significant seaports sector, IFC’s active projects comprise 52 projects in 20 countries with a total commitment of USD 2.2 billion in own account financing. Seaport developments1 (greenfield developments or port expansions) may improve connectivity, increase port productivity, and add traffic capacities. As such, the projects may have an economic impact not only through the direct development and operation of the port, but may have second order effects such as allowing for increased traffic volumes and also cheaper and faster transport.
The Jobs M&E Toolkit provides a package of resources for project teams and clients to support mainstreaming the Jobs Agenda in World Bank Group (WBG) lending operations. The aim is to help teams working with government counterparts with simple tools for data collection on jobs, without the burden of resource-intensive survey efforts. The toolkit contains a set of guidance on indicators for key results on jobs, data collection forms and manuals, which are tailored by beneficiary type: individuals and firms. The availability of measurable indicators should encourage a more systematic assessment of jobs outcomes. The Jobs M&E Toolkit provides resources to be used throughout the entire project cycle. It is best applied ex-ante in the design of projects and their M&E systems, so that data collection can support implementation progress and reporting from the outset. Regular monitoring and data availability will underpin project completion to assess achievements in job results ex-post. The indicators and data collection forms may also be useful for related mid-term, final or impact evaluations. The resources made available through the Jobs M&E toolkit have been developed by the WBG's Jobs Group in a consultative process. The menu of indicators and related guidance were generated through a portfolio review of WBG projects and in consultation with Task Team Leaders (TTLs) from different Global Practices (GPs). Further, data collection manuals were developed using existing resources from Labor Force Surveys, enterprise surveys and different surveys developed by the WBG. Moreover, the Jobs M&E Toolkit is currently being piloted in a number of WBG operations, with feedback from project teams helping to revise, adapt and refine the toolkit.
This report analyzes the World Bank Group (WBG) portfolio in Zambia focused on jobs, referred to as the jobs portfolio, regarding its impact on outcomes related to job creation, job quality, and job access. The review is presented within the context of Zambia’s jobs priorities: more good-quality jobs with traditionally disadvantaged groups benefitting from opportunities to work. It finds that the jobs portfolio is more focused on intermediate-level outcomes related to jobs, such as improving access to markets and firm performance. A range of intervention types contributes to job creation (66 percent of the reviewed portfolio), job quality (47 percent), and job access (51 percent). Activities focused on spatial development in value chains tend to support job creation in the formal sector. Job quality outcomes include enhanced worker productivity in informal agriculture where the majority of Zambians still work. The WBG has primarily supported job access through targeted interventions in lagging regions. Further, the combined portfolios of the WBG and let’s work partners show greater coverage of a range of job quality and job access outcomes. Areas for future support to improve job outcomes include macroeconomic and regulatory support, skills development, and targeted support for vulnerable populations and youth in particular. In addition, projects need to be reinforced by sound monitoring and evaluation (M and E) systems tracking results explicitly related to jobs.
Agriculture continues to play a dominant role in the economy of Burkina Faso, both in terms of output, as well as employment. Burkina Faso’s economy remains predominantly agriculture-based—over the last decades, farming has consistently accounted for between 30 and 40 percent of the GDP. More than 80 percent of its population is involved in farming, to various degrees, whereas 70 percent of the country’s labor force reports that agriculture constitutes its main occupation.
The economy of Burkina Faso has grown rapidly over the recent years and generated employment, but due to the poor quality of jobs poverty remains widespread. Between 1998 and 2014, the GDP of Burkina Faso expanded on average by 5.7 percent each year—considerably faster than other countries belonging to the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) where average growth was 3.4 percent per year. However, GDP per capita grew at less than half the pace of GDP; it expanded by 2.6 percent each year and increased from US$421.1 USD to US$637.9 over the observed period. Many jobs were created to absorb the labor force but mainly in farm and low productivity activities. Thus, while poverty has declined somewhat, over 40 percent of the population still lived below the poverty line in 2014. Absolute poverty remains high especially in rural areas. Unlocking the economy’s potential for the creation of better jobs is a key challenge, especially considering slower GDP growth experienced over the most recent period.
The demographic projections for Burkina Faso foresee a fast-growing population and an expanding workforce characterized by a youth bulge similar to that of other West African nations. The population of Burkina Faso is expected to grow from around 18 million in 2015 to 43 million by 2050. Between now and 2020 an estimated 300,000 jobs will need to be created each year in order to accommodate the expanding workforce. By 2050, the share of working-age population in total population will increase from 52 percent to 61 percent. With the bulk of labor force tilted towards the youth, this represents both an opportunity and a challenge: a successful response to an increasingly youthful workforce will have to feature more productive and inclusive jobs.
With a remarkable spurt of growth since 2003, Ethiopia is set to become a middle-income country by 2025. Unlike many developing economies, growth has largely been pro-poor and has led to reduction in poverty in both urban and rural areas. According to a recent poverty assessment report by the World Bank (WB, 2015), for example, poverty in Ethiopia declined by 14 percentage points, from 44 percent in 2000 to 30 percent in 2011. Similarly, since 2005, 2.5 million people have been lifted out of poverty. During this period, the main drivers of economic growth and poverty reduction remained rural-based and are associated with strong agricultural growth and investment on infrastructure development.
This Final Road Map Report identifies interventions, instruments, and options to address investment gaps in the orange/mandarin and coriander value chains in Kota division Rajasthan, India using the Development Corridors created by roads infrastructure in order to catalyze investment.
Business training is one of the most common support services offered by governments to small firms around the world. However, a number of evaluations of such training programs have struggled to identify impacts, and an additional concern has been that any growth of trained firms might come at the expense of their competitors.
A common concern with efforts to directly help some small businesses to grow is that their growth comes at the expense of their unassisted competitors. This study tests this possibility using a two-stage randomized experiment in Kenya. The experiment randomizes business training at the market level, and then within markets to selected businesses. Three years after training, the treated businesses are selling more, earn higher profits, and their owners have higher well-being. There is no evidence of negative spillovers on the competing businesses, and the markets as a whole appear to have grown in terms of number of customers and sales volumes. This market growth appears to come from enhanced customer service and new product introduction, generating more customers and more sales from existing customers. As a result, business growth in underdeveloped markets is possible without taking sales away from nontreated businesses.
The evolution of urban job-housing structure has reflected the deep changes of urban spatial pattern caused by urban economic growth and land expansion. The formation, development, expansion and growth of modern cities have all undergone the process from agglomeration to diffusion and re-agglomeration to re-diffusion. The transformation between urban agglomeration and diffusion reflects the process of agglomeration and suburbanization of job and housing, which consequently form the monocentric and polycentric job-housing spatial structure.
As the urbanization rate of cities around the world is projected to increase rapidly in the 21st century, transportation infrastructure construction becomes ever more important for urban health and sustainable development. Urban planners and transportation planners alike hope to increase regional and urban economic growth, ease traffic congestion and improve urban traffic efficiency by increasing investment in transportation infrastructure. Transport infrastructure is important for cities not only at the technical level, but it can also improve employment levels by providing a better connection between housing and employment centers. In particular, for low-income groups transportation infrastructure plays an important role in reducing unemployment, improving employment opportunities and overall quality of life.
China’s megacities are undergoing rapid urbanization and extensive rail transit construction. Transport infrastructure is becoming increasingly important for the employment of the poor in China’s megacities. Beijing, the country’s political, economic and cultural center, is China’s second largest city with an estimated 2015 population of 21.7 million. The city contains 666 kilometers of rail transit. Although it is one of the cities with highest GDP in China, poverty has not completely disappeared. In fact, with the rise of housing prices and widening economic inequality in recent years, poverty-related urban problems are becoming more prominent. In large-scale affordable housing communities and in suburban fringe areas around the city where low-income groups are concentrated, the impact of transportation infrastructure for the employment accessibility of low-income groups is critical.
Economists and other social scientists are increasingly using big data analytics to address longstanding economic questions and complement existing information sources. Big data produced by online platforms can yield a wealth of diverse, highly granular, multidimensional information with a variety of potential applications. This paper examines how online job-portal data can be used as a basis for policy-relevant research in the fields of labor economics and workforce skills development, through an empirical analysis of information generated by Babajob, an online Indian job portal.
This paper estimates the effects of knowledge spillovers on firms' long-term performance and workers' wages. For this purpose, we use the participation in an innovation support program as an exogenous shock to the knowledge stock of non-participant firms. We pinpoint the knowledge diffusion process by tracking the mobility of skilled workers among firms. Combining an employer-employee panel dataset that contains the whole population of firms and workers in Argentina for the period 1998-2013 with administrative data from the FONTAR program, we track the mobility of workers from participant to non-participant firms. To estimate the effect of spillovers we use the panel structure of the dataset using Lag Dependent Variable (LDV) models. We find that firms that hired skilled workers from participant firms increased employment (in addition to the workers from participant firms), the average wage they pay, their exporting probability, and the value of their exports. Consistent with the hypothesis that those effects are due to newly acquired productive knowledge, we provide evidence showing that the effects were driven by firm-level productivity improvements. Finally, we show that a wage premium is paid to skilled workers exposed to the program either by participant (to retain) or non-participant firms (to acquire) depending on the concentration level of the industry of reference. This finding further confirms the hypothesis that valuable productive knowledge is generated through the program and that this knowledge is more extensively diused in less concentrated industries.
To this end, IFC commissioned Oxford Economics (OE) to analyse the economic impact of airports. The report’s purpose is to advise how best to accurately measure and track the economic impact of airports; and to evaluate the effect of IFC’s investments in two case study airports in which it had previously invested: Montego Bay Airport (MBJ) in Jamaica and Punta Cana Airport (PUJ) in the Dominican Republic. The main focus of the project was on quantifying impacts via the airport’s operational activity, the footprint of tourist arrivals and effects on the tradable sector. To do this, we established a Theory of Change (ToC) framework that identified the various channels through which airports support economic activity. It sets out how economic effects stem from the operations of an airport itself, its supply chain and through the wages spent by its employees; and from wider catalytic effects—here most notably from the impact on tourism and trade.
This study sets out the pathways through which improvements in the availability, affordability and reliability of electricity supply impact on businesses and households. Specifically, it evaluates whether more and better power helps create jobs and improve livelihoods.
Jobs are a high priority for development and stability in fragile and conflict-affected situations. Jobs contribute to poverty reduction, productivity and economic growth, and can promote social cohesion and reduce the risk of violence. However, the jobs environment is particularly challenging in situations affected by fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV), with various combinations of high political, economic and social risks, weak institutional capacity, a difficult political economy, and significant constraints on financial resources to support recovery and reconstruction.
This snapshot features a descriptive analysis of the data collected during the STEP Employer Survey. The issues highlighted here can be further investigated by researchers and policy-makers interested in using survey tools to discuss skills availability and needs in the labor and education policy contexts.
Kenya’s Vision 2030 aims to “transform Kenya into a newly industrializing, middle-income country providing a high quality of life to all its citizens”. Kenya means to achieve this by building a globally competitive and prosperous economy, a just and cohesive society with social equity in a clean and secure environment, and a democratic political system that protects rights and freedoms of every individual.1 Job opportunities – more productive, transformational jobs – will be key to realizing this vision.
SolTuna is the only tuna-processing facility in Solomon Islands, a country where the tuna industry accounts for 18 percent of gross domestic product. SolTuna’s remote location presents the company with significant operational and cost-management challenges. In particular, the costs of labor, shipping, and support¬ing infrastructure in Solomon Islands, compared with competitors in Thailand and the Philippines, are higher, meaning SolTuna needs to reduce those expenses to remain financially viable.
In this study a framework is developed to quantify job creation due to investments in renewable energy (RNE) infrastructure. The framework has been applied to two PROPARCO-financed case studies: Polesine in Uruguay and Azure in India. Using the results of the two case studies as well as four other studies conducted by Let’s Work partners (IFC, CDC and DFID’s Nigerian Infrastructure Development Facility) an online toolkit has been constructed with which GDP and employment effects can be estimated for 120 countries in PROPARCO’s investment universe. Because the six case studies on which the toolkit is based encompass a wide range of different economic and power conditions, the toolkit produces dependable ex-ante estimations of the impact of new investments. The toolkit can henceforth contribute to investment decision making and strategy development effective immediately. When more detailed case studies become available and are integrated into the toolkit, the reliability of the estimations will improve further. Hitherto power and RNE investments decisions have been based mainly on financial risk & return projections and a climate footprint assessment. The GDP and employment estimations from this toolkit enable the inclusion of the development impact perspective in the investment process.
SolTuna, based in the town of Noro in Solomon Islands’ Western Province, is the country’s only tuna processing facility. An IFC investment client since 2013, SolTuna employs over 1,800 workers, 64 percent of whom are women. SolTuna has a strong commitment to ensuring equal rights and opportunities for women and men in the workplace. Non-discrimination policies and practices are in place, and the company has taken proactive steps to support women workers and promote greater gender equality through initiatives such as investing in training women forklift drivers and supporting community efforts to address gender-based violence (GBV).
Globally, 4.4 million tons of cashews were produced in 2013, on 5.5 million hectares of harvested area. Leading producers by volume in 2013 included Vietnam, Nigeria and India, while leading producers by harvested area included India, Cote d’Ivoire and Brazil. In 2013, Mozambique ranked 12th in both production quantity and harvested area. Global volume increased 10.2% from 2009 to 2013, while harvested area has remained flat, indicating greater yield rates; such increase can come from improved cultivation practices and/or new trees reaching maturity.
Mozambique is faced with both a jobs and skilled labor shortage. Mozambique’s current job landscape is largely informal, unskilled, low value-added and dominated by agriculture and small firms. Though GDP has grown an impressive 7.2% per annum 2011-2015,1 the quantity and quality of job creation locally has failed to keep pace with demand. Of a total population of 25.8 million,2 Mozambique’s labor force constitutes approximately 11.6 million workers.3 Current unemployment nationally is estimated at 22.6% (19.8% for males and 25.0% for females),4 and an estimated 300,000 youth will enter the labor force each year. Mozambique’s adult population averages only 1.2 years of formal education, with only 20% of the workforce having completed primary school and only 13% completing secondary school.5
The path to inclusive growth in Mozambique, as in most other developing countries, lies in higher quality employment. With a low per capita income and a high level of deprivation, higher earnings will be the main driver of poverty reduction in the next few decades. Today, the majority of the labor force does not earn enough to bring themselves and their families out of poverty. Small holder farmers in rural areas – where the majority of the labor force still earns most of their income - are not able to work full time, owing to seasonality of agriculture, lack of assets, and in the case of females, the burden of household chores. Urban residents report working long hours but still struggle to develop a sustainable livelihood. In both urban and rural areas, the majority of the labor force works for themselves or their families, as steady wage employment is unavailable, even in urban areas.
India has undeniably made tremendous progress in its economic development over the last two decades. Much of this advancement has been done in collaboration with development partners such as the World Bank and others. For example, the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY) project to build road networks in various regions including Rajasthan has created the potential for Development Corridors, which can become the catalyst for further development and investment. These corridors can form the backbone of economic clusters that offer a sustainable model for further progress in a number of industries.
This Regulatory Assessment is part of the “Accelerating the Impact of Transport Infrastructure Investments in India Through a Market-led Approach” project launched by the World Bank with a pilot collaboration with the Government of Rajasthan along the orange/mandarin and coriander value chains in Kota division. The project’s Development Corridors model is designed to leverage transport infrastructure networks in order to unlock untapped market potential in the agricultural sector and improve economic opportunities for people living in deprived rural areas in Rajasthan. While some of the gaps in the enabling environment can be directly addressed through investment, others will require policy or regulatory changes and better implementation of existing laws and regulations.
Social assistance benefits are often conditional on school attendance. However, they will only lead to higher human-capital accumulation and increased labor mar- ket earnings through learning. We use a regression-discontinuity design to examine whether conditional cash transfers impact test scores in national exams.
Review of activities financed by the Let's Work Partnership for the year 2016.
Worldwide, more than 200 million people of working age are unemployed. Over the next 15 years, on account of population growth and demographic change, 600 million additional jobs need to be created to keep current employment rates stable. It is the aim of the initiative “Let’s Work” to provide effective solutions to the global jobs crisis, by harnessing the potential of the private sector to create more and better jobs in emerging and developing countries. In that spirit, this report – which takes the perspective of practitioners from the private sector – has the following objectives: (a) to demonstrate that there can be a business case for private sector enterprises in emerging and developing countries to tackle skills gaps, and that there can be a win-win situation for companies and society; (b) to present good practices, and examples of their application, by and for private-sector companies on three different levels: the current and prospective workforce, along the value chain, and in the local community; (c) to present and showcase hands-on methods for assessing the costs and benefits of initiatives to bridge skills gaps; and (d) to provide concrete recommendations for identifying and addressing skills gaps step-by-step, by means of a practitioners’ guide based on good practices that are applicable in various sectors and regions.
The consultative workshop brought together large and small private sector firms, the Government, and development organizations to discuss practical interventions that can help deepen domestic linkages between large firms and smaller domestic enterprises in the agribusiness, forestry and construction sectors. The aim was to allow key stakeholders in the three specific sectors to contribute ideas towards the development of three to five key priority actions in each sector, that have the potential to be impactful in creating private sector led inclusive jobs.
This paper investigates the occupational mobility and job quality of young people in Indonesia and relates this to the concept of “scarring.” The concept of labor market scarring in this paper is the occurrence of low or zero returns to certain types of work (for example, self-employment). Scarring is expected to occur whenever an individual spends periods working in occupations in which their human capital is either stagnant or deteriorating. Fixed effects estimations using panel data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey reveal that a period in self-employment is associated with negative returns for youth (about 3 to 4 percent per year penalty), but not for older adults. In addition, there are clear patterns of persistence in self-employment over time with few individuals progressing from petty self-employment to businesses with permanent workers.
Getting youth into productive employment is an urgent policy issue for countries around the world. Many governments in low and middle-income countries are actively engaged in policies to help youth attain the skills they need to do well in work and in life, as well as to find suitable employment. The involvement of the private sector in youth skills development and employment is a complex issue because the nature of the firms and their motivations vary significantly.
On behalf of the Board of Directors, it gives me great pleasure to be able to introduce the first baseline report of the Solutions for Youth Employment (S4YE) Coalition. Only a few weeks ago at the United Nations, we witnessed a historic moment when the international community adopted new goals and targets for achieving sustainable development, eliminating extreme poverty, and boosting shared prosperity for the world’s population by 2030. This is a truly exciting moment, and S4YE is delighted to be able to contribute to inspiring and measuring progress toward meeting some of these goals through this report.
In the past 15 years, employment, labor market participation, and wages have grown significantly in Brazil. Improved labor market outcomes have been the main drivers of reductions in poverty and inequality. But job creation is already slowing. Continued progress in employment and labor earnings will depend on the country’s ability to achieve a first critical goal: raising labor productivity. Continued improvements in the livelihoods of the poor will depend on the country’s ability to achieve a second critical goal: connecting the poor to better, more productive jobs. Sustaining Employment and Wage Gains in Brazil: A Skills and Jobs Agenda analyzes Brazil’s labor markets and identifies the key challenges involved in sustaining job creation, wage growth, and poverty reduction.
In much of the world, today’s young people are failing to realize their aspirations. Youth unemployment rates hover around historical highs and hundreds of millions of youth are stuck in low paying, insecure, or low quality jobs that undermine future economic opportunities and earning potential. Several factors contribute to the employment challenge, including bottlenecks on the supply side, such as inadequate or irrelevant education and training and resulting skills gaps, as well as on the demand side, such as insufficient economic growth and quality job creation (as many as 5 million jobs a month need to be created worldwide to absorb new entrants to the labor force).
Around the world, the talents and aspirations of hundreds of millions of young people are lost in a fog of unemployment, with few accessible quality jobs in sight. Youth are up to 4x more likely to be unemployed than adults and the situation for young women is even more dire. Emerging economies struggle to recover from the global recession, create jobs, and spur growth. Resource-rich developing nations face the challenge of pursuing capital-intensive industry and creating employment for youth.
El análisis de la dinámica en el mercado de trabajo es relevante no sólo para comprender mejor su funcionamiento sino también para evaluar los cambios en el bienestar de los hogares y para contribuir al correcto diseño de las políticas públicas en materia laboral. La mayor parte de los estudios existentes sobre el mercado de trabajo ecuatoriano se basan en el análisis de información estática, a partir de datos de corte transversal.
This study was carried out with the objective of informing the Let’s Work Program for Mozambique about the key sectors that have been provisionally identified for value chain interventions (agriculture, forestry, construction and the extractive industries) with a comprehensive overview of each sector and further analysis of selected value chains within each sector. The study also closely examines the employment skills situation in the country as well as the position of women in the labor force. Finally, to ensure better coordination and complemenetarity with other donor initiatives, a comprehensive list of projects and programs connected to employment generation and skills development is presented. The consultant reviewed all known documentation considered relevant to the objectives of the study and conducted interviews with a broad range of stakeholders from the private sector, government and donor community.
Review of activities financed by the Let's Work Partnership for the year 2015.
This paper investigates the impact of tourism policy on employment, using the Tourism Development Policy (TDP) implemented in the Argentinean province of Salta during the years of 2003 to 2010 as a case study. Following the Synthetic Control Method for comparative case studies, we use a combination of non-treated Argentinean provinces to construct a synthetic control province which resembles relevant characteristics of Salta before the TDP implementation. Given the dual focus of the evaluated policy – one specific sector in one province – we also construct a synthetic control for the tourism sector using a combination of other sectors for Salta, and other sectors from other provinces. This novel approach based on multiple dimensions of the donor pool allows us to test the robustness of the estimated impact. We find that TDP implementation increased tourism employment in Salta by an average of 11 percent per year, for an overall impact of around 112 percent between 2003 and 2013. The analysis also suggests that larger impacts of the TDP occurred from the second to the seventh years after policy implementation. Results are robust across a series of placebo tests and sensitivity checks.
This paper studies the impact of the Brazilian Arranjos Productivos Locais (APL) policy, a cluster development policy, on small and medium enterprises’ (SMEs) performance. Using firm-level data on SMEs for the years 2002–2009, this paper combines fixed effects with reweighting methods to estimate both the direct and the indirect causal effects of participating in the APL policy on employment growth, value of total exports, and likelihood of exporting. Our results show that APL policy generates a positive direct impact on the three outcomes of interest. They also show evidence of short-term negative spillovers effects on employment in the first year after the policy implementation and positive spillovers on export outcomes in the medium and long term. Thus, our findings highlight the importance of accounting for the timing and gestation periods of the effects on firm performances when assessing the impact of clusters policies.
This paper studies the effect of government- backed partial credit guarantees on firms’ performance in Colombia. These guarantees are automatically granted by the National Guarantee Fund (NGF) to firms without enough collateral to lift their credit constraints. We put together a panel of firms covering the period 1997–2007 that allows us to control for observed and unobserved firm characteristics potentially affecting both the selection of firms into the program and firms’ performance. We find that firms that gain access to credit backed by the NGF were able to grow in terms of both output and employment. However, we do not find any effect on productivity, wages, or investment.
Review of activities financed by the Let's Work Partnership for the year 2014.
The baseline survey was conducted in 2013. This was followed by four rounds of follow-up surveys, conducted in order to measure outcomes approximately one year and three years after training occurred (see timeline Appendix 1 of the Working Paper available under Related Materials). Two types of surveys were used. A comprehensive long-form survey collecting data on a wide range of business outcomes was used in rounds 2 and 4. These were supplemented by much shorter surveys in rounds 3 and 5.
The Private Infrastructure Development Group (PIDG) seeks to understand the impact of the projects it supports and to this end commissioned ODI to conduct a pilot study of the job creation impact of the Bugoye Hydro Power Project (BHPP) in Uganda. The purpose of the study is to enable the PIDG to understand the impact that the project has had on jobs and to help develop a methodology for similar studies on other projects. The study was undertaken between November 2012 and January 2013, including a visit to Uganda. Bugoye Hydro Power Project (BHPP) is a 13 MW run-of-river hydro plant, located in Kasese District, western Uganda. The plant is owned and operated by TronderPower Ltd (TPL), who are in receipt of a 15-year loan from the Emerging Africa Infrastructure Fund (EAIF) amounting to US$ 31.7 million. Equity investment by Norfund and TrønderEnergi, the shareholders of TronderPower, totals US$ 19.7 million. The Government of Norway provided a grant of US$ 8.9 million to Uganda to construct the transmission line that links BHPP to the national grid. BHPP began operating in October 2009, ahead of schedule, and has since supplied a total of 240,536 MWh to the grid. The study assessed the net direct, indirect and induced employment effects of the project, following an approach modelled on a methodology developed by the International Finance Corporation (IFC). This methodology was adapted to the circumstances of Uganda and of the project, in particular to take account of limitations in the quality and availability of data.
This study follows on other IFI initiated impact studies like the PIDG-commissioned study on the Bugoye power plant in Uganda and the study on Powerlinks transmission in India/Bhutan conducted by IFC. This report explains how the impact of IFI investments in Philippine power generation largely travels through its effect on electricity price. Unlike the situation in a number of other emerging markets (notably in Africa) where demand (far) outstrips generation capacity, power supply in the Philippines has historically been able to satisfy demand, albeit at prices which likely constrain demand. Residential electricity consumption depends much more on income than on electricity price (i.e. is elastic with respect to income and inelastic with respect to price). In most commercial sectors electricity use is also rather price inelastic because it constitutes a fixed production cost. In the manufacturing sector, however, electricity is largely a variable cost and electricity consumption has thus been found to be more price elastic. For that reason and because the manufacturing sector is responsible for about a third of electricity consumption, this study focusses on the marginal price decreasing impact of IFI-attributable power generation and thereby on increasing manufacturing sector output. Apart from a direct increase of value added (incomes), more manufacturing output also requires other sectors to increase their output and value added (incomes), which in return will increase electricity consumption, thereby increasing electricity prices.
This article evaluates the effect of the Argentinean Support Program for Organizational Change on employment and wages. The program aimed at increasing small and medium-sized enterprises’ competitiveness by co-financing technical assistance to support process and product innovation activities. Although employment is not usually the main objective of these types of programs, they are always implemented assuming that they create—or at least do not destroy—employment opportunities. We to test this important assumption. Using a combination of fixed effects and matching, we find that both process and product innovation support increased employment and wages, with a higher impact on employment. In addition, we find that product innovation support had a larger effect on wages than process innovation support. We use a unique data set with information for the population of firms in Argentina from 1996 to 2008 to test this important assumption. Using a combination of fixed effects and matching, we find that both process and product innovation support increased employment and wages, with a higher impact on employment. In addition, we find that product innovation support had a larger effect on wages than process innovation support.
This paper evaluates the impact of the Chilean Supplier Development Program, aimed at improving and stabilizing the commercial linkages between small and medium-sized suppliers and their large firm customers, during the period 2003–2008. We use the panel structure of our dataset to control for observables and time-invariant unobservable factors that affect the participation and performance of firms. We find that both small and medium enterprises and large firms benefited from the coordination efforts. The program increased sales, employment, and the sustainability of small and medium-sized suppliers; it also increased the sales of large firms and raised their ability to become exporters. In addition, we find that the timing of the effect is different for suppliers and large firms. While the effect on suppliers appeared 1 year after the firms enrolled in the program, the effect on large firms took 2 years to appear.